Wouldn’t we all love to know the answer to that question! The simple truth of the matter is that nobody knows for sure. But – we are starting to get some glimmers of hope.

1. The stock market. I really don’t like to pay a ton of attentionn to the market. Day-to-day swings aren’t very good barometers of the real health of the economy, and that’s certainly true if we look carefully at the last 20 months. However, more than 50% of Americans now own stock of some sort – 401k, IRA, etc. SO the market – in an odd way – serves  a a sort of “national mood ring” on thebroader economy. As the market cratered from September through February, everything in the economy came to a grinding halt. Consumer confidence fell, and everyone – businesses and consumers – basically stopped spending, which, in turn, helped drive down the market, which then slowed spending, and, well – you get the idea. The past couple of weeks have seen a nice rally in themarkets. Whether this is the start of a long recoveryremains to be seen, but it is very encouraging for the start-up of a real recovery.

2. Sales of existing homes. This index showed a 2.1% jump in February, which was quite a bit higher than expected. The housing market and its long, deep slump has been and remains a real drag on any recovery. But – if existing inventory starts to move again, this vital segment might really be looking at the light at the end of the tunnel. It’s definitely a buyers’ market, and may – just maybe – buyers are entering the market and taking advantage of both high inventory and low interest rates.

3. Consumer spending. This is another tell-tale sign things might be coming around. Spending is up a bit, and it just might trend upwards for another month or so. That would be great news, because the ripple effect on inventories, manufacturing, etc. could be important.

4. Stimulus spending. It really doesn’t matter whether you like the stimulus package or not. The infusion of billions of federal dollars into the economy will impact the pace of any recovery. While we’d all like to see lower deficits, the simple fact of the matter is this federal spending will find its way into the pockets of millions of Americans a thousands of businesses. This extra cash will spur spending, and speed up the recovery.

The one fly in the ointment, however, is the job market. It looks like large scale hiring will not rebound as quickly as other elements of the broader economy. But – there is reason to hope, and reason to stay in the hunt.